The Market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — $29,658,365 in volume. Currently priced at 14% YES / 86% NO.
That’s $4.1M sitting on “Yes” — a nontrivial signal from sophisticated traders who put real money behind their conviction.
Why 14%?
Here’s what’s actually driving the probability:
The legislative push Senator Gillibrand has pushed for years for a formal UFO disclosure program. The 2024 NDAA included provisions for a government archive of UFO records. Congressman Luna has been leading a faction demanding DoD release everything.
The historical record The US government has acknowledged:
- Project Blue Book (1947-1969) catalogued 12,618 sightings
- The 2017 AATIP program (Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program) was officially confirmed
- In 2023, David Grusch testified under oath to Congress that the US has recovered non-human craft — and he passed a polygraph
- The Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has investigated 800+ cases
What the market is pricing The market doesn’t think disclosure is likely — but it’s not impossible. The 14% reflects:
- Growing Congressional pressure from both parties
- Multiple whistleblower testimonies (Grusch, Fravor, Granks)
- Pentagon insider reports of “non-human biologics” recovered from crash sites
- The fact that UFO disclosure has been “about to happen” for 80 years — but Congress is more serious now than ever
Why the NO holds at 86%
- Intelligence agencies benefit from the ambiguity
- No formal mechanism forces disclosure
- The stigma has slowly lifted but official confirmation means admitting a secret kept for 80 years
- Classified programs don’t get unclassified quickly
What’s the Bull Case for YES?
The honest answer: this isn’t a technical analysis. It’s a political one.
If even one credible whistleblower with classified evidence goes public — or if DoD accidentally releases the wrong document — the probability jumps dramatically. The market has been stuck at 10-15% for two years not because it’s implausible, but because genuine disclosure requires political will that hasn’t been unlocked yet.
But here’s the thing: the 14% is higher than it was 18 months ago. And as Congressional pressure builds, it keeps drifting up.
The Edge Question
Is 14% undervalued? That depends on your prior.
If you believe the evidence that’s already public — Grusch’s testimony, recovered materials, multiple credible witnesses — you’d argue the true probability is 20-25%. That would make YES a +EV bet at 14%.
If you believe intelligence agencies will bury this forever, you’d say 5% max. That makes NO the value play.
The market sits at 14%. The question is whether you’re more bullish or bearish on political disclosure than the crowd.
What Would Resolution Look Like
“Confirmation” is narrowly defined. It means one of:
- Congressional hearing with classified evidence officially acknowledged
- DoD statement acknowledging recovered craft of non-human origin
- Publication of records showing US government possession of ET materials
A Congressional speech, a leak, or a journalist’s investigation does NOT count. Only official US government confirmation.
Bottom Line
| Current Price | 14% YES |
| Volume | $29.7M |
| Market thinks | 1-in-7 chance of official disclosure |
| Bull case | Congressional pressure + whistleblower evidence |
| Bear case | Classification barriers + intelligence community silence |
| Resolution | Congressional or DoD official statement |
This is not financial advice. The alien disclosure market is a unique asset class — treat it as such.